Top Senate Targets for 2006

by Alex, Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 03:20:15 PM EST

Ordered based on a matrix of likely vulnerability and desirability of removal:

Santorum (PA)
Lott (MS)
Ensign (NV)
DeWine (OH)
Talent (MO)
Kyl (AZ)
Snowe (ME)
Chafee (RI)

Details below the fold.

Santorum (PA): Bury this bigot!  He should be an easier target than Specter was, because he's too right-wing for a state that Gore and Kerry both won.  Besides, we don't want him as a presidential contender in 2008.

Lott (MS): Trent is damaged goods.  He may not run for reelection, but if he does, he'll be unusually vulnerable for a blood-red-state rethug.

Ensign (NV): Purple state where Bush's vote share declined from 2000 to 2004, and where the other Senator is a Democrat.  Ensign seems like a decent sort, for a Republican, but we need every seat we can get.

DeWine (OH): Don't know whether he's vulnerable at the moment, but we really need to stay competitive in Ohio.  I don't know who we run against him, though; Fingerhut lost badly to Voinovich, and Tim Ryan's probably a bit too young and too new to Congress.  Any other good Democratic contenders in Ohio?

Talent (MO): Let's make this frosh a one-termer.

Kyl (AZ): He's not as invincible as McCain; Governor Janet Napolitano or Attorney General Terry Goddard might beat him.  I've met Goddard; he's terrifically charismatic, and his political base is the Valley of the Sun, which is generally the most Republican of the state's population centers (Flagstaff is a liberal college town, and Tucson has a large, low-income hispanic population that gave Napolitano the governor's mansion) -- he was elected to four terms as mayor of Phoenix.

Snowe (ME): Olympia may be challenged by a conservative in the primary; good luck for us if she loses, since once again we need the seat no matter how decent the Republican incumbent is, and because a conservative challenger would be much easier to beat in Maine.

Chafee (RI): he's probably not going to defect now that the Repugs have 54 seats, and his state is the bluest of any Republican up in 2006.  If we're lucky, he'll lose his primary and we won't have to feel bad about tossing him out; instead we can crush whatever winger beats him and feel good about it.

We need to take out five of these eight.  We also need to work at holding onto Byrd's seat in West Virginia (he's likely to retire), Hillary's in New York (against a challenge from Pataki or Giuliani), Kohl's in Wisconsin (possible challenge by Tommy Thompson), and Conrad's in North Dakota (just because it's deep red).

Poll
Who do you think should be our top Senate target for 2006?
Rick Santorum
Trent Lott
John Ensign
Mike DeWine
James Talent
John Kyl
Olympia Snowe
Lincoln Chafee
Someone else

Votes: 130
Results : Vote Link : Polls


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asdf (3.00 / 1)

Santorum would be my pick. I'm hoping Hoeffel's bid this year was intended all along as a warm-up to take him out.

I would rather resources be invested in taking out the conservatives rather than Snowe and Chafee. it's nice to have at least a couple allies on the other side of the aisle.

by johnny longtorso on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 03:28:38 PM EST

Re: asdf (none / 0)

I agree in principle, but our priority has to be winning a majority; if Snowe and Chafee continue to vote for the Republican leadership, and they're vulnerable, we need to go after them.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 04:01:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correction (none / 0)

"...he's probably not going to defect now that the Repugs have 54 seats..."

It's 55 now.

by Mr Moderate on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 03:32:24 PM EST

Re: Correction (none / 0)

You're right, I forgot about Daschle.  Geez, what a blood-bath.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 03:59:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I looked at all the 2006 candiates this morning (none / 0)

33 Senators face challenges in 2006
18 are Democrats or Independents who caucus with Democrats
15 are Republicans
5 are Democrats in states Bush won in 2004
3 are Republicans in states Kerry won in 2004

1. Daniel Akaka- Hawaii- 82 (Age in 2006)
This seat would probably be safe even if Akaka retires, though the governor is a young female republican.
2. George Allen- Virginia- 54
Governor Warner could pick this seat off for the democrats
3. Jeff Bingaman- New Mexico- 63
Bingaman is an incumbent in a barely red state. He should win reelection.

  1. Conrad Burns- Montana- 71
  2. Robert Byrd- West Virginia- 89
If Byrd retires, this seat could be hard to defend. The democratic governor won big on Tuesday. Perhaps he could be convinced to run.
  1. Maria Cantwell- Washington- 48
  2. Thomas Carper- Delaware- 59
  3. Lincoln Chaffee- Rhode Island- 53
Patrick Kennedy could mount a decent challenge. I would prefer Chaffee, who is my favorite Republican, changing parties before running for reelection.
9. Hillary Clinton- New York- 59
We could face a tough challenge here from Giuliani, though I'd doubt that he wants to risk losing before 2008. Can Pataki run for reelection or are there term limits? Spitzer for Governor!
10. Kent Conrad- North Dakota- 58
I'd expect us to hold onto this seat. He won't face Daschle's problem of being identified as a Washington Democrat.
  1. John Corzine- New Jersey- 59
  2. Mark Dayton- Minnesota - 59
  3. Mike DeWine- Ohio- 59
I know the Blogosphere loves Tim Ryan because his draft speech. But the guy's pro-life and has a 100% rating with the NRA. I, for one, do not want him in the senate.
14. John Ensign- Nevada- 48
This state continues to become more democratic due to an influx of people from California. It will probably be difficult to win here, but I don't think it is impossible.
  1. Diane Feinstein- California- 73
  2. Bill Frist- Tennessee- 54
Frist is in all likelihood retiring to set up for a run for President in 2008. Harold Ford could very well win this seat.
  1. Orrin Hatch- Utah- 72
  2. Kay Bailey Hutchinson- Texas- 63
  3. Jim Jeffords- Vermont- 72
  4. Edward Kennedy- Massachusetts- 74
  5. Herb Kohl- Wisconsin- 71
I'd expect Rep. Paul Ryan to make a strong challenge against either Kohl or Gov. Doyle. This seat is not necessarily safe. Wisconsinites view Kohl as a rich guy who likes being a Senator but doesn't do much there.  
22. Jon Kyl- Arizona- 64
Senator Napolitano?
  1. Joe Lieberman- Connecticut- 64
  2. Trent Lott- Mississippi- 65
  3. Richard Lugar- Indiana- 74
  4. Bill Nelson- Florida- 64
I think this seat is safe. Florida is probably the most liberal red state and Nelson is a moderate.
27. Ben Nelson- Nebraska- 65
Nelson is pretty popular (or at least he was when he was Governor). I'd expect him to hold onto this seat.
28. Rick Santorum- Pennsylvania- 48
Let's concentrate on picking off this seat from the Bigot-in-chief. Santorum and Jeff Sessions are my least favorite Senators. Pennsylvania continues to become more liberal due to the Philly suburbs. Let's poor a boatload of cash into this state and get Rendell (is he popular) to run. Santorum is thinking of running for President in 2008. Let's stop him before he gets the chance.
  1. Paul Sarbanes- Maryland - 73
  2. Olympia Snowe- Maine- 59
Snowe is pretty popular (I, for one, am a fan). If we're to win this seat, we need to tie her to Bush and DeLay, if he hasn't resigned in ignominy yet.
  1. Debbie Stabenow- Michigan- 56
  2. Jim Talent- Missouri- 50
Maybe Gephardt could beat Talent? If we're to prevent this seat from becoming Talent's for life we need to win it back in 2006.
33. Craig Thomas- Wyoming- 73
by skipper2379 on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 04:51:18 PM EST

Don't forget (none / 0)

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX).  She's rumored to want the Governorship. It may be a long shot but if we can get a good Democrat candidate it might just be possible.  We need to keep the momentum from this past election.
by pessullivan on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 05:15:17 PM EST

Dayton (none / 0)

I think we have got to watch out for this one.  MN went for Kerry, but of course in 2002 it went for the GOP big time.  Also, I think that Dayton has acted a bit weird -- e.g., his abandoning his Senate office last month.  I don't know who the Reps might run, but he will definitely be a target.
by BigModerate on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 06:35:46 PM EST

Senate Targets (none / 0)

Barring unforseen retirements (and there always are) the only vulnerable Republicans I see are Ensign, Santorum, and Talent.  Any first termer who was originally elected with less than 55% of the vote is automatically a potential target.Talent just barely squeaked in, so he will obviously be targeted.Ensign and Santoroum had slightly larger margins, but changing demographics in their states.Ensign would probably be more difficult than Santorum to knock off. But I agree that Rick has got to be target #1. Man would that be sweet.

As far as Kyl and DeWine, if either would retire, we would have a fighting chance. Otherwise barring a major wave, I don't see any way of knocking them off. In MS, even if Lott retires, it would be a major uphill battle to win that seat. And no way Chafee or Snowe lose in a general. They are way to popular for that. And you can be sure the natonal Republican Party will do all they can to prevent a conservative from challenging them.They are not suicidal and they know that if a conservative would win a primary, the seat flips. But maybe someone should whisper in Stephen Moore's ear for the Club For Growth to gear up a conservative challenger in VT and ME.

As far as our Senators, look for them to target both Nelsons, Dayton and Conrad.Conrad got 61% of the vote last time, but I think what happened to Daschle will spur the Republicans to try to pull the same thing in ND. The only difference is that with Daschle being a leader, they were able to attract high profile national support  for Thune. It would be difficul to do that against the low-key Conrad, plus it's doubtful they would have a challenger on the level of Thune. Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA)both barely squeaked in in 2000, but I wouldn't anticipate either one facing a serious challenge. Both States have now become reliably blue. And finally, a Byrd retirement doesn't guarantee a Repblican. Other than in presidential elections, West Virginia is still a Democratic State. On the national level the Dems lose it over gays and guns. They will surely find a local Dem who will not face that hurdle.

by Sy Gold on Thu Nov 04, 2004 at 07:27:09 PM EST


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